Taking a tough stance toward Pyongyang was a hallmark of Lee’s campaign. In the run-up to the election, he said he would be less tolerant of communist North Korea if it fails to give up its nuclear weapons. His conservative Grand National Party seeks greater economic openness from North Korea, as well as concrete evidence that it is disarming its nuclear weapons program. Lee also has said he wants to reinvigorate military cooperation with the United States. Forcing modernization of North Korea’s economy also resonates as a major goal within the party. North Korea ranks as the world’s least free economy on the Heritage Foundation’s 2007 Index of Freedom. In an interview, David C. Kang, a professor at Dartmouth’s Tuck Business School, says North-South economic engagement will be a slow process but could reshape the region economically, particularly if rail traffic is allowed to cross through North Korea.
Support for Lee stemmed in large part from frustration with the current administration of President Roh. Roh’s critics claim Seoul has been too soft on North Korea. Writing in the New York Sun, longtime Korea watcher Donald Kirk calls the peace treaty reached at the recent inter-Koeran summit a “gimmick” by the North to “receive enormous quantities of aid while giving very little in return.” According to Andy Jackson, a professor at Ansan College in South Korea, the state-run Korean Development Bank estimates the cost of Roh’s proposed economic package at over $50 billion. He writes in the Wall Street Journal: “It’s unlikely that major Korea corporations will want to risk more money in North Korea, despite Seoul’s encouragement…That means that either way-through corporate spending or tax hikes-the South Korean taxpayers would likely foot the bill.”
Other South Koreans remain disgruntled about the state of their country’s economy. Over the past decade, South Korea’s growth rate has fallen to an annual average of 4.4 percent, down from a torrid 8 percent pace for much of the 1990s. While many see the lower rate as a more realistic long-term trajectory, inflation has been on the rise, real estate prices have increased, and income gaps have widened. Lee, the former mayor of Seoul and Hyundai’s top executive, capitalized on these concerns by pledging 7 per cent economic growth, raising income per capita from the current $18,000 to $40,000, and aiming to make Korea the world’s seventh-largest economy.
What Lee’s election might mean for North Korea’s denuclearization process remains unclear. According to the February 2007 agreement in the Six-Party Talks, North Korea has until the end of the year to disable its Yongbyon reactor and make a complete declaration of all its nuclear facilities. But Seoul says the North may miss its deadline. Don Oberdorfer, chairman of the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University, is optimistic nonetheless. In this interview with CFR.org, he says even with a conservative leader at the helm “rapprochement between the two Koreas will go ahead,” though it may go a little more slowly than now “unless there are some basically North-generated problems.”
